The National Retail Federation’s July 2026 back-to-school outlook draws on research conducted with Prosper Insights & Analytics. The survey found that 62% of shoppers had started buying by early July, while affordability continued to shape their decisions. NRF’s July 14 research release
Among shoppers who still had at least half their purchases to make, 46% were waiting for better deals. Nearly half of all shoppers planned to buy essentials first and replenish supplies during the school year. The research covered 7,677 consumers surveyed July 1–8, with a margin of error of 1.1 percentage points.
A shopper who’s waiting for a better deal may still intend to buy. That’s useful context for a retailer deciding when to promote or how much inventory to commit. Prosper’s research gives leaders direct responses from real consumers about those choices. For teams using AI to forecast demand, it also provides evidence to check the model’s assumptions against: what people say they plan to buy, and what’s holding them back.
NRF’s release also includes commentary from Prosper’s executive vice president of strategy, Phil Rist, on college purchasing plans. The findings describe reported behavior and intended spending; final sales depend on what families go on to buy.
Prosper Insights & Analytics brings real consumer responses into demand forecasts and commercial planning, helping leaders test assumptions about what people will buy.
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